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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Wisconsin Tonight

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.  I believe the polls close at 8 p.m. Central. 

I'll have updates on the results, but probably not until an hour or so after the polls close, since I'll be at a handgun training class tonight.  My wife and I finally are taking the plunge, and going through the NRA basic handgun safety course.

Consider this something of an open forum on the Wisconsin race.  Comments will be put through, so keep us up to date as to reports of what is happening in Wisconsin, and any results which come in before 9 p.m. Central.

Updates:  Prosser/Kloppenburg results

4% reporting - 49/51
6% - 50/50
8% - 50/50
9% - 51/49
11% - 51/49 (if this keeps up, Kloppenburg ballots will start showing up in car trunks soon).
12% - 51/49
13% - 51/49
17% - 50/50

AP reports results by county, curious if readers have an insights based on which counties have reported

20% - 51/49
23% - 51/49
24% - 51/49
29% - 51/49 (11,586 vote difference)
32% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 21,000 votes in Dane County, Prosser up just about everywhere else)
34% - 50/50
42% - 51/49
43% - 51/49
46% - 52/48 (29,445)
51% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up almost 50,000 votes in Dane County and 21,000 in Milwaukee so far)
52% - 50/50
55% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up just over 4000 votes)
58% - 50/50 (same vote difference)
61% - 51/49 (Prosser up by 11,406)
64% - 51/49
66% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 1400 votes)
68% - 50/50 (Prosser up 900)(Dane and Milwaukee 75% reporting, Waukesha only 25%)
69% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 500)
71% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 5000)
73% - 50/50 (same)
76% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 6800)(per Jessica Arp some but not all Madison votes in)

Fond du Lac County has not reported anything yet.  Good/bad?

78% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 7183)(Waukesha 60% in)
81% - 49/51 (Kloppenburg up 17,741)(me thinks Madision just came in)
82% - 49/51 (18,832)
84% - 49/51 (35,000)
85% - 49/51 (23,751)
88% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 5266)(Fond du Lac all in)
90% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 1676)

"@SwingState: Apparently, Dane County had an error that gave Kloppenburg 134K instead of 124K
Did someone hit the wrong button?"

92% - 50/50 (Kloppenburg up 1577)(update, Prosser up 591)
93% - 50/50 (Prosser up 399)
94% - 50/50 (Prosser up 6510)(Waukesha all in reportedly - not on AP site yet -- but not all Dane, 5 left )

"@WisconsinReport  Notable precincts left: Dane (5), Eau Claire (41), Marathon (32), Mil (13), Ozaukee (8), Racine (10), Sauk (8) Waukesha (68)"

95% - 50/50 (Prosser up 1790)
97% - 50/50 (Prosser up 3499)(update, 1183)

"@WisconsinReport Waukesha is all in : 198 districts reporting, 81,255 (73%) for Prosser, 29,332 (27%) for Klopp."

97% (still) - 50/50 (Prosser up 4671)(update 2415)

"@MacIverWisc Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett just said on TV that in Milw. they have just begun to count the 8,000 absentee ballots..." ---- absentee ballots are the wild card here.

Looks to me like it's coming down to Milwaukee - that can't be good, no?

Not much movement in vote tallies in last half hour. (Now 12:25 a.m. Central)

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  1. Woo Hoo, another armed compatriot! Have fun!

  2. One warning, of a sorts. The official NRA gun safety rules are designed for a "cold range" (e.g. a target shooting situation, where, for example, you don't load your gun until you're ready to start shooting).

    They're not so good or apropos for self-defense or hunting (I grew up in the latter gun culture but am now in the former). I strongly recommend Cooper's 4 rules, two of which are essentially the same, one of which is their first supplementary rule (and entirely critical for self-defense and hunting) and they start an essential rule of attitude. Wikipedia has them verbatim (and that's no accident :-).

  3. I had not seen it anywhere, but Journal Sentinel endorsed Prosser back on April 2nd. When I read it online, I get the feeling it leans left.


  4. Voted in Eau Claire today - not as many people as in November but still good sized crowds for the middle of the day in an April election.

    98,000 WEAC members and more government union members eager to vote. Lots of taxpayers and parents on the other side tired of never ending spending increases while the worst 5% of the teaching staff continues to damage our kids education.

    We'll see who shows up. (I know at least one teacher who is skipping the vote and another who's spouse is voting opposite)

    ptcontracting - Journal Sentinel leans left - they endorsed Obama. So an endorsement from them is good but Kloppenburg is a weak candidate.

    On Wisconsin!

  5. Can we say that for Prosser to win, he needs a "Franken-Proof" margin?

    Franken-Proof. adjective
    A margin of victory sufficiently large enough to either: 1. preemptively discourage recounting challenges or 2. able to survive recounting chicanery.

    Example: Leading 55% to 45% with 87% of precincts reporting, Prosser really is on his way to a Franken-proof win.

  6. results to be posted here if that link is screwed up go to Hot Air for same link


  7. I really hope that the decision to "take the plunge" by you and Mrs. Legal Insurrection reflects your decision to express your second amendment freedoms.

    But I'm not naive. I assume that you are "taking the plunge" because you are receiving inappropriate comments/threats -- either on this blog or through other venues.

    If I am right about that, it is profoundly saddening.

    I hope you will not succumb to the itimidation. You are a shining light. God bless.

  8. 1% in, not good. 59-41 Klapentrap.

  9. Watching this election closely.

    Can someone answer this? why won't the repubs just repass this bill, its not the contents that are the dispute, its the this open rules, even those are pretty clear.

    As someone who used to support unions, I am absolutely disgusted by what they have done in WI, the thuggery, the threats to small businesses. Would not be a bit surprised if they rigged this election as well. I do not see myself supporting unions any longer in the future, especially public unions, I have pretty much lost all respect for them now.

  10. AP has results - currently 50%-50% with 6% in.
    Just refresh page to update.


  11. Tim they may not have the votes anymore ....think about it ....they threatened them....their families .....they destroyed property ...would you put yourself through that again

  12. Supreme Court REPORTING 8%
    David Prosser (inc) 71,736 50%
    Joanne Kloppenburg 71,502 50%

  13. AP has results - currently 50%-50% with 8% in.
    Just refresh page to update.


  14. @Tim, if the GOP were to revote the process would simply be repeated. The Unions and their Dems have made it clear they will challenge the law on every issue possible. In short, they could revote, but it would just put off the inevitable ... a ruling by the WI supremes.

  15. aggie95 said...

    thank you for answering; that makes sense, I guess that is why my opinion has done a 180 on these public unions, I have family that are in public unions, they have no choice to "pay up"
    and frankly even they were disgusted by what went on in WI.

    I don't think they have any clue, that the public is not relying on the MSM protrayal of them, I saw the youtube clips, I saw what they did, I support collective bargaining, but what Gov Walker proposed is very modest, and the temper tantrum to me revealed so much about these unions, my support for them has plummeted to the point of nonexistance.

  16. Remember King County in Washington. If the numbers are close the libs will steal the election.

  17. The simple truth is the unions have chosen this hill to live or die on because they in the near future they may not have the ability to do so. In Ind back in 2005 the new gov MD did much as Walker is attempting to do in WI and this is the biggie he stopped using the state as a collection agency for the unions making the unions collect their own dues. Union membership fell from 16,000 to less than 2,000

  18. To re-vote is to admit that the first vote wasn't valid. So, if they decide to re-vote they need to first sequester the Democratic Legislators, and schedule hearings at Camp Randall Stadium.

  19. Does Rhode Island require that guns be marked with "Do not point this end at face"?

    Probably the best thing you will discover once you own a gun and start going to the range is that gun owners are probably the most safety-minded class of citizens on earth. Most "accidental shootings" we read about are probably not accidental. Too many perfect shots to the head. It's just not that easy.

  20. Prosser leads by 12,000 at 9:28

  21. at 9:30 lead down to 2000 with 32 % in

  22. "AP reports results by county, curious if readers have an insights based on which counties have reported."

    Well, sure... Kloppenburg's primary strength is Dane County, a/k/a the People's Republic of Madison. Milwaukee is the other bastion. Given the high population of those two counties, high turnout will make it very difficult for Prosser.

    On the other hand, Waukesha, Brown and Racine are running to Prosser and those three counties could make up for the others.

    It's all about getting the vote out, and to be honest, Waukesha may make the difference. What I don't like is that not a lot of precincts have reported in either Dane or Milwaukee, which bodes ill for Franken-proofing.

  23. with 34 % in at 9:33 P still leads by about 2,300....wish I knew what counties had come in already

  24. aggie95

    here is a link that lists the counties, madison is not in yet, with a margin this close, I think it will be stolen, its not "franken proof" enough.
    Makes me sick, absolutely sick how this will be rigged.


  25. 2 places posting results
    2 most populous counties are Dane and Milwaukee, and both are breaking for Klop - looks like a bad night for GOP

  26. P with 18,000 lead at 9:44 with 38 % in

  27. Prof,

    Congrats on taking a handgun course. First and last thing to remember:

    Always treat the weapon as if it were loaded.

    Word of advice:

    M-1911A1. Nothing else need be said.

  28. P with 19,000 lead with 42 % in at 9:49

  29. Brown county didn't come through the way Prosser might have liked, with a net 6000 votes for the fourth largest county. On the positive side, though, Milwaukee is looking both like a low turnout and also not nearly as strong for Kloppenburg as it might at first have appeared.

    It really looks like it's going to be Waukesha vs. Dane, and right now Waukesha looks stronger.

  30. Tim, I'd like to shake your hand sir. And, Aggie, the AP link http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
    is updating by county. Makes me nervous that only 25% of Dane county is in. Ugh.

  31. p with 30,000 lead with 46 % in at 9:55

  32. p leads by 1100 at 9:58 with 51 % in

  33. Right now it's neck and neck. With 50% of the precincts in, Dane is nearly 39000 for Kloppenburg, while with 25% of the precincts reporting, Waukesha is about 39000 for Prosser. The rest of the state combined is virtually a wash.

    It really does seem to come down to whether there are enough Prosser votes in Waukesha county to overcome the overwhelming vote in Dane county.

  34. Milwaukee and Dane counties throwing huge amounts of votes towards Klop and they're both only half done counting. Simply awful.

  35. P leads by 11,000 with 61 % in at 10:16

  36. And just as I post that, 18 precincts in Dane county accounted for an 11,000 vote swing for Kloppenburg. But then Washington county posts huge numbers for Prosser. It's going to be very, very tight.

  37. http://elections.todaystmj4.com/G8801.htm

    are the updates on this site slower?

    I've given up, this thing was rigged, I just hope the repubs repass this entire bill, I know how bad it was for some of them, but there is no choice in allowing the taxpayers to be silenced. Pass the bill again.
    The union thuggery prevails yet again.

  38. up by 18K... is he putting it away?

  39. Tim, do't give up, lots of conservative counties yet to be counted.

  40. This should serve as a pretty good proxy for any recall elections that happen. It would be handy for some wisconsinite to run the numbers over the next several days and see where the 16 senators stand. The one possible upside to a loss for Prosser is that it will show some that outside of places packed with college students and teachers, this hasn't been the leftist clarion call that most are making it out to be (or trying too).

    Not that it's a loss yet... still too close.

  41. The AP has dane county around 75 percent in @1130, but Waukesha only around 25 still. If that holds, that looks promising for prosser

  42. Why do I fear that Prosser is about to be Frankenized?

  43. It seems as if quite a few small counties have not reported, they are usually conservative that bodes well in a close finish

  44. ... are those numbers for Waukesha right? Comparatively, that's a lot of votes for only 52 precincts

  45. What is up with Fond du Lac ?

  46. ah, now it updated. If they're accurate now (???):
    Klop currently +5K
    Dane net 15K for Klop.
    Waukesha net 15K for Prosser.
    Milwaukee Net about 10K for Klop.

    Small pop counties ???

    15K differential seem too large or doable for the rest of the state to make up?

  47. Fond du Lak has still not reported with 77 prescient and Washington County has a long way to go but not looking good

  48. Pretty much done, I believe.

    I think I'll go to madison and trash some stuff. That's what "democracy looks like" in Wisconsin>

  49. Still counties not reporting, what's up with that?

  50. Don't give up yet! Within 2000 again. It depends on the last numbers for Waukesha and Washington.

    It's interesting that nearly half of the human beings in Dane county voted - not registered voters, mind you, but human beings. More people voted in Dane county than in Milwaukee county, which has nearly double the population. If they keep going at this rate, more than 200,000 will have voted in this election compared to 280,000 in the 2008 presidential election. You have to hand it to them; they got out the vote.

  51. Still hope- compared to 2010 results here a number of votes still out there for Prosser. Wash, Wauk even some from Fon du lac

    Notice Racine usually more left - 53-46 for Obama, now 19-16 for Prosser - maybe just some big left districts waiting to see how many votes they need to print.


  52. I don't know now. The local channel has the difference down to 2K with 90% in.... late reporting counties going to go prosser? Are there more Dane county trunks and closets to report in?

  53. 6K prosser bump was from Fond Du Lac. Which is now tapped out. Good, but not enough.

  54. Is there a +15 difference in votes left in Washington for Prosser?

  55. I thinks they're playing chicken with the remaining votes

  56. Gretawire posted a thread "too close too call" as of 10:51 pm ET, with 43% reporting. That showed Prosser ahead by a nice margin. How is it possible Prosser's lead could have dwindled so much during such a brief period unless there was some union-assisted fraud? Just asking...


  57. At 11:30, Waukesha county has 130 of 198 precincts reporting, with Prosser leading 81,255 to 29,332, 73% to 27%. If that ratio holds up, he should get a good bump from the remaining precincts. It is hard to remember where some of these counties are, and which cities are in them. A nail-biter for sure. Anybody think we'll hear a concession speech on this race tonight?

  58. Great, the woman lost 4 times before, yet now blasts by the Prof in most of all of the polls because "everybody" believes he is a pedophile enabler? This doesn't make sense.

  59. According to Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, at 93% in, Prosser up by 399. This is going to go all night.

  60. Dane county continues to sit on 41 precincts. But with Prosser up now, even if they manage to Franken the vote I don't think they can avoid a recount and I wonder how well that massive turnout will stand up to scrutiny?

  61. Jer: You hit it exactly. I'll show you mine if you show me yours...

  62. WHOA!!! Dane just reported 36 of their precincts without a change in the tally! That's huge! Only five precincts left in Dane county, and still more than 70 precincts in Waukesha, and Prosser up by 6500!

  63. With 93% of the votes counted, Prosser had a 0.02% lead. With 94% of the votes counted it has jumped up to 0.47% lead. He is just knocking them dead. (Or is that too violent a reference?) He is on a tear. 11:37 pm CDT

  64. I'm telling you, guys, they're going to find a stack of ballots in a trash can somewhere...

  65. Recounts should be the norm. I really have my doubts about the voting system in recent years, seriously. It's a sick,angry feeling in the gut to suspect corruption at the polls, or voting by those who do not have citizenship (illegals).

  66. .... 70 precincts left in Waukesha with Dane county about tapped out? and Prosser slightly ahead?

    Gaaaaaaaaaah. Can't sleep.

  67. That precinct count for Waukesha has to be off... right? There can't really be a pile of prosser ballots waiting to come in... ??

  68. Ah heck. Waukesha just reported all precincts counted with no change in tally. That leaves 4 precincts in Dane and 13 in Milwaukee to come up with 2000 votes for Kloppenburg. Not a good position to be in.

  69. Nope. Not right. AP just updated Waukesha to all in. No change in votes. Dane county and Milwaukee still have precincts out. The "back of the precinct" precincts (IYNWIMAITYD) probably.

    1600 vote lead for Prosser. Whatever the totals it'll be a fraction of a percent difference. Even a close win for Prosser is going to have to be defended in a recount (Dems always win recounts).

  70. As of a few minutes ago, there were 23 counties with precincts not completely counted, and Klopenberger led in 12 of those. If counties with just 1 or 2 missing precincts are considered, Klopenberger leads in those 7 counties to 5. But, of the twelve that are left, Sauk, Milwaukee, and Eau Claire are the counties with lots of remaining precincts (8, 13 and 21, respectively) and thus far going to Klopenberger. However, there are still several counties which are leaning toward Prosser with many precincts uncounted: Waukesha with 68 precincts out of 198 not counted; Racine with 10 of 63 not counted; Ozaukee with 8 of 48; Marathon with 32 of 140 not counted. Dane County has just 4 uncounted precincts: the bounce is pretty much out of there.

  71. Yeah, the car trunks are being counted. Milwaukee just announced ONE precinct with nearly 5000 votes for Kloppenburg.

  72. With about 100 precincts not yet in, the count on AP just had Prosser up by 4,725 votes.

  73. And one county in Dane with 4000 Kloppenburg votes.

  74. And Dane and Milwaukee are just waiting for the other counts to finish to see how many votes they need to have to put Klop over the top.

  75. TMJ is reporting Eau Claire is hand counting some ballots.
    If it walks like a duck.........well, you know the rest.

  76. The two counties with the most precincts uncounted are Eau Claire with 21 and Marathon with 32. One leans one way, the other the other way. Dunn and Sauk are missing 6 and 8 precincts. Interesting that Milwaukee still has a dozen uncounted precincts.(Around midnight.) Most other counties have just one or two missing precincts.

  77. Yeah, that's painfully obvious, isn't it? They need enough votes to avoid a recount - that's why they're still waiting for a couple of counties like Marathon to report.

  78. At this address: http://www.co.marathon.wi.us/eResults3.asp

    is an unofficial count of the ballots in Marathon County. The missing precincts are all wards in the City of Wausau. Somehow I am less sanguine about Prosser picking up many votes. I wonder why so many Wausau wards are uncounted. Did they have a weather anomaly tonight, and the roads are flooded? Or a wind storm? It's not like those wards are in a remote corner of the county.

  79. When I voted in Milwaukee, I never voted absentee: I figured it would be easier for them to lose my ballot that way.

    Time for bed. A race this close is always won by the Democrats because they have no compunctions about not cheating. It is, after all, for the good of the workers of the state! How else will they keep their union overlords?

    How about the Republicans make Wisconsin a right to work state? Further, allow employers to only deduct taxes, and employee contributions to pension and health insurance benefits from worker paychecks. If a worker wants their membership at the local Y paid automatically, arrangements can be made with the institution that collects the payroll deduction. The point of the bill is to ease bookkeeping for businesses.

  80. I'm off to bed as well. Regardless of the final tally, the number is within the Margin of Franken. But it does seem clear that there is no mandate. A very well organized GOTV campaign in Dane county did the trick, and that's no surprise.

  81. 98ZJUSMC: while I am personally a total fan of the M1911 (who's centennial US Army adoption anniversary was a few days ago), first and foremost because since I was a teen it has fit my hand like a glove and second because I was very experienced by then (had started shooting in kindergarten), for me it's far from an automatic recommendation for newbies.

    If they can deal with the small amount of extra complexity (which is not so small in real life, "Everything in war is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult.") and desire what it arguably the best and most effective combat handgun ever designed, it's certainly worth serious consideration.

    However, the last time I had to make a recomendation for a newbie it was a DAO Beretta Cougar in .45 ACP although that very possibly wouldn't be my recommendation for the good professor and his wife (production is now in Turkey and concealed carry is almost certainly not a (legal) option (well, I'm not sure about Rhode Island), although his wife might get away with it). Their new Px4 Storm line, if you can deal with their less than ideal 92 ergonomics would be worth consideration (on the inside all but the most compact model is a Cougar), my father has one to compliment his 92 and he's quite happy with it, plus the complementary Cx4 Storm carbine that with good sights could be an ideal home defense weapon.

    If concealed carry is not an issue then there are plenty of bigger "service" guns designed for military officers for whom concealment is not an issue and that are worth consideration. Do not take any advice to use a shotgun as your first line of home defense: they are too early ripped out of your hands by grabbing them outside of your grip and achieving much greater leverage (as I demonstrated to the astonishment of my much younger and stronger nephew) and they're a bit overpowered and loud for use inside the home.