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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Nevada Trending Towards Sharron Angle

A FoxNews/Pulse Research poll of likely voters in Nevada holds some hope for Sharron Angle:
Republican Sharron Angle seems to be solidifying her support in her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

In the first Fox battleground poll in the Silver State four weeks ago, 10 percent of respondents were either unsure, in favor of a minor party candidate or, as state law allows in Nevada, planning to vote for "none of these candidates."

In this week's poll, those three categories add up to 5 percent. Over the same period, Angle’s overall vote percentage went from 45 percent to 49 percent.
The polling question results and demographics are not good for Reid, who continues to rate in the mid-50s range for job disapproval.

Despite an onslaught against Angle by The Vaporizer with help from Greg Sargent and others, Reid has not been able to raise his own positives very much, or even to demonize Angle effectively.  Reid's negatives (55%) remain slightly higher than Angle's (53%).

49% of voters say Obama administration policies have hurt Nevada's economy, versus only 18% who say the policies have helped.  Reid running on his record is a losing proposition. 

The percentage of likely voters saying Tea Party backing for Angle increases their support for her has risen in the past month from 25% to 30%, with a steady 27% viewing it negatively.  Another 36% say it makes no difference.

Is the race over?  No, of course not.

Are things trending our way?  Yes.

Update:  One of the commenters questions any poll conducted by FoxNews.  The firm FoxNews uses, Pulse Opinion Research, apparently is a spin-off of Rasmussen and uses Rasmussen's methodology.  Despite the negative attacks on Rasmussen, it has been a mainstream and reliable polling organization.

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  1. Hi Professor,

    I'm only slightly skeptical of the Poll, given that it IS from Foxnews, after all. Other news agencies are certainly biased as well but Fox does lean Rightish..

  2. The poll was conducted October 2. The Las Vegas Review Journal endorsed Sharron Angle on October 3. Actually, the endorsement was as much an excoriation of Reid as it was an endorsement of Angle. I think the LVRJ endorsement is a pretty big deal. That's because 75% of the population in Nevada live in Clark County, and the LVRJ is the largest newspaper serving that market. Some newspapers make their Sunday editions available online on Saturday, so maybe this bump in the polls for Angle reflects the LVRJ endorsement. If the paper's endorsement was too late to affect this poll, then Angle should theoreticaly get another bump in the next poll.

  3. CHMusicus
    Fox polls have either been neck and neck with other news polls or tended to have a Dem lean in the past. Because Fox sponsors the poll doesn't mean they design the poll. Nate Silver said yesterday that Rasmussen's house effect is only modestly tilted Republican (R+1.5). He also mentioned that PPP had a modest Dem tilt. Pollsters who care about their reputation strive for accurate results particularly this close to an election.

    That said, what is important here is the trend toward Angle shown by the same pollster as we get closer to the election. The election looks to be breaking in Angle's direction which has to give the Reid campaign indigestion today. I wonder how Linda McMahon's polls will look in a few days after they begin to register Blumenthal's big gaffe in last nights debate. That should have been a game changer IMO, but this is CT so we'll see.