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Monday, October 11, 2010

The Crisis Later This Week

As of now, Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad is scheduled to arrive in Lebanon on October 13, and to conduct a joint appearance with Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on October 14.

The situation is very tense and provocative.

Ahmadinejad will go to South Lebanon as far south as the border with the Israeli town of Metula during the trip, and reportedly will approach the border fence with hundreds of civilians to throw rocks at Israeli soldiers.

This visit comes on the eve of a predicted Hezbollah takeover of Beirut if, as exptected, of an international tribunal indicts Hezbollah members in the death of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Meanwhile, a previously unknown Sunni group has threatened to disrupt the visit. 

The U.S. Embassy has issued a travel warning for Americans in Lebanon.

Should be an eventful week.

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  1. i know there is a reason why the isreali soldiers shouldn't just shoot him.

    but i am having trouble thinking of it right now.

  2. If Shi'ite Muslims are implicated in the assassination of the Sunni Prime Minister, Lebanon could quickly devolve into a civil war. That is, unless someone manages to distract Lebanese Sunnis (ooh, shiny!) with some convenient agitprop against Israel. The opening shot in this latest conflict was fired two months ago, when Lebanese forces opened fire on and killed Israeli soldiers who were trimming a tree on the Israeli side of the border. Israel was calm, and deprived Hezbollah/Iran of their cynical political theater. With the Hariri assasination report imminent, Hezbollah is going to be looking for another distraction at the expense of Israel.

  3. ...And I had just settled down for my long winter's nap.

    Mahoumed will not be satisfied until he has goaded the Israelis into action and he has turned the Middle East into an inferno. We should take this as an article of faith. He is mad as hell that his nuclear facility was sullied by hackers and he is confident that Israel and the US did it.

    We all know how this will end. War in the Middle East with the US caught or rather trapped there. It is that last great chapter in the Muslim defeat of the great Satan. Think of who Iran's friends are. Are any of them truly concerned with the welfare of the US? [China, Brazil, India, Russia - the Bric bunch].

    We have a weak, weak, leader and the Ahmadinejad smells blood.

    I am not an alarmist but with all that I have read, I cannot but draw any other conclusion. It's back to duck and cover and hope your neighbor remembered the cranberry sauce.

  4. When a Shiite Persian steps foot on historical Sunni Arab soil, my fear is that it may well be more than "an eventful week".