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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Brown Up 51-46 In Final PPP Poll

PPP has just released its final poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election, and PPP gives Scott Brown a 5 point advantage, 51-46:

Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.

Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley's favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.

Here's what we found:

-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment.

The interesting part of this poll is that Brown has increased his lead over the prior PPP poll which showed Brown up by 1. The PPP poll is consistent with the recent Suffolk poll which showed Brown up by 4, and Rasmussen which had Brown up by 2 [clarification: among voters who definitely will vote, with Coakley up 2 among "likely voters"].

The details of the poll show some surprises, including that Obama has only a 1 point net approval rating (44-43), which would call into question whether Obama's appearance today will help Coakley.

Also, the public continues to oppose the current health care proposal, 48-40, further casting doubt on the Coakley strategy of highlighting Brown's opposition.

In what could be serious trouble for Coakley, her favorability rating is a negative 7% (44-51) whereas Brown is a positive 19% (56-37).

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  1. From firedoglake

    Progressives, please help defeat Coakley

    They're doing it for all the wrong reasons, but still.....

  2. @randyc - thanks, I've added a clarification that Brown was up 2 among definite voters.

  3. This is good news. I'm guardedly optimistic. I just hope all these polls have accurate screaners and we don't have a repeat of NY-23. PPP has Hoffman +17 in their last poll and another poll has Hoffman +5. The final result was the Dem winning by 4%. Numbers are more consistent here, but these polling firms could be using similar screens to play it safe and avoid outliers, but all the polls could be wrong on election day. The Democrat's voter pool is huge, all it would take is a small increase in the number of Dems scared into voting and it would be able to make up the 2-4% difference. Like I said, cautiously optimistic.

  4. mikehinton: I'm from Mass and I've never seen anything like this before for any election. I was so cynical that I thought the Democrats were promoting the first poll showing Brown had a lead but when several fairly reputable polls have him up then I'm starting to believe it. Most of the voters are Independents. We (I'm one) outnumber the registered Republicans and Democrats combined. That's where your concern about the huge voter pool for Democrats is overly "cautious" because the Democrats are having a hard time exciting their base, hence the reason for the POTUS to come here. The Republicans and majority of Independents are all excited. The majority of Independents, although admittedly have had a history for voting Democratic, are pissed off as well. We're Independents because we won't swear allegiance to any party which means we think for ourselves. They can't gather up a bunch of Independents and bus us to voting booths because they can't be sure how we'll vote. Brown is going to win the legitimate vote count, I'm sure of that. They'll have to steal the election from him while the entire world looks on and I think the momentum, the media frenzy,and the increasing poll numbers might just prevent them from being able to do it.

  5. Has any politician with a negative rating over 50 percent ever won, when his opponent had an almost 60 percent positive favorable rating? I doubt it. It looks like Croakley has lost it and I would wager that Brown gets around 55 percent of the vote in MA.