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Thursday, January 14, 2010

Brown Up 4 In Suffolk Univ. Poll

A just released poll by Suffolk University shows Scott Brown leading by 4 points, what the pollster calls a "Brown Out":

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. "It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

The breadth of Brown's strength is across the board in the poll. But one interesting corollary is that the Kennedy family endorsement may have hurt Coakley:

Big-name Kennedy endorsements for Martha Coakley appear to have been little help to the Democrat in the U.S. Senate race - and may have even hurt her with some voters, a new Suffolk University/7News poll shows.

The late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s widow, Vicki, and nephew Joseph Kennedy II gave the attorney general their official blessing last week.

But of the 500 voters surveyed, only 20 percent said the Kennedy family nod made them more likely to vote for Coakley, and 27 percent said the endorsement made them less likely to support her.

The details of the polling data show some interesting answers to questions:

As a U.S. Senator, do you think Martha Coakley will be an independent voice or tow the Democratic Party line?

Independent voice: 24%
Tow the party line: 64%
Undecided: 11%

Can the federal government afford the proposed national healthcare law?

Yes: 32%
No: 61%
Undecided: 7%

Is your opinion of Martha Coakley generally favorable or unfavorable?

Never heard: 0%
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 41%
Heard of/Undecided: 10%

Is your opinion of Scott Brown generally favorable or unfavorable?

Never heard: 5%
Favorable: 57%
Unfavorable: 19%
Heard of/Undecided: 19%

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  1. Holy mackerel.

    He's going to win.

  2. Fantastic, but please, do not assume victory.

    We MA residents must continue to push all we can. Educate your friends, family and coworkers.

    Brown needs us to get out the vote on Jan 19th. We can use this survey to cheer us, but we cannot assume anything!

    Keep it up Prof. Jacobson. Your site is helping us in MA immensely.

  3. Professor Jacobson:

    Is there a way to get this to their campaign?


    It's about focusing on the voting machines and making sure the dems don't cheat.

    Also...are they ready for the importing of union folk who are planning to come from out of state?

    And are they ready to not give in and concede if it's close?

    I believe Brown will win but I also believe the left will do anything and everything to make sure that doesn't happen...whether it be by intimidation or by changing vote results or finding ballots in their cars. We saw it in MN so we know it can happen.

    Are they prepared with watchers and cameras for all the polling stations?

    Thank you!

    Mary Beth (Worry wart Brown supporter in Tennessee)

  4. Martha Coakley: yea, I will deny someone a life saving heart transplant for political reasons

    From AOSHQ: http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=297044

    Martha Coakley is precisely the kind of person we need architecting this nation's health care. Caring. Compassionate..

    ..."Middlesex District Attorney Martha Coakley blocked the donation of Costin's heart after he was diagnosed clinically brain-dead," writes Sean P Murphy of the Globe, "to preclude any possibility that his assailant's lawyer might contend at the trial that Costin died of a pre-existing heart condition rather than the beating."...

    Martha Coakley is willing to let innocent 3rd parties die to ensure her success as a DA. This sort of attitude is just gobsmackingly vile beyond belief.


    She MUST not win.

  5. Kennedy endorsements only help "like-minded" voters decide, not those of us in Massachusetts that aren't lemmings to the Democrat Party. I'm not sure what's going on here but from what I see people that are pissed off from both parties, most Republicans regardless, and politically informed individuals are voting almost two to one for Brown. People that vote straight party line for Democrats aren't getting aroused about this election or are deciding to stay home and see what happens as a "protest vote" of sorts. Unless the election is stolen from him, Brown is going to win. As a resident of Massachusetts I can feel it.

  6. I'm really pulling for Brown, and the state of MA. Well, really for all of us. I donated to Brown and spread the word, and like Mary Beth, very worried about voting fraud.

  7. Here is something fun to read, a little off the beaten path:


  8. hint: Joe Kennedy's Facebook page is insightful.

    Without any doubt... there are clever Coakley trolls over there beating the drum for Joe K...

  9. I agree with Justin, this is indeed fine news, but it means that we have to work harder than ever to help him win. Sitting back or being even slightly less motivated is not an option. Best if he wins by a large enough margin that the Mass dems can't block him from taking his seat. That would be a disaster not only in Mass but across the country. People would be very angry indeed if they try that, and I'd rather the margin be wide enough that we don't risk the fall-out of more deaf, dumb, and blind dem moves.