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Monday, January 4, 2010

So Is The Mass Election Tonight?

Tonight, Rasmussen will be polling the Massachusetts Senate special election.

Unfortunately, some prominent right-wing commentators and almost the entire Republican establishment have decided to sit this one out unless and until there was a reputable public poll showing that Scott Brown was within striking distance of Martha Coakley.

What foolishness. By sitting this one out these people have increased the likelihood that this first poll will not be favorable to Brown. Anyone ever hear of a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Brown has been gaining momentum in the past three weeks, as his candidacy has gone viral. Money enough for statewide advertising to increase his name recognition and demonstrate policy differences is pouring in, but the effects will not be seen until election day. Anyone ever hear of Doug Hoffman's late surge in NY-23?

Obviously, I can't predict what Rasmussen's poll will show. But in this unique circumstance, with Coakley's greater name recognition, and Brown's rising candidacy, the establishment has set us up for a fall should this first poll be negative.

The election is not tonight. But if the Republican establishment has its way, it will be.

Update: The Weekly Standard is reporting results of a private poll by a reputable polling organization showing Brown down by 11%, and less in another private poll which focused on people most likely to vote. If true, that would be wonderful news because motivation of the base and the independents would be key. But everyone will be looking at Rasmussen. (via HotAir)

And, PPP is estimating (not polling) that the race will be tight, just 2-3% apart. If Rasmussen confirms that the race is just single digits apart, it would be an earthquake.

And, HillBuzz is suspicious of why Rasmussen chose to poll now, and says we need to push on regardless.

Related Posts:
Let Triathlete Brown Run His Race
Coakley Glances at Her Watch - For Six Days
Martha Coakley's Political House On Fire

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  1. I'm ambivalent about this poll. Yes, I'm thrilled that Rassmussen is finally taking notice, but as you've so eloquently posted previously, a bit of quiet is good. If Brown is within spitting distance of Coakley, the dem/SEIU/ACORN machine will crank into unethical action. Also, if he's not doing as well as we all hope, I worry that some may get discouraged (not me, however, but then, I clung to the hope that McCain would somehow win in 2008 practically until he conceded, so worried was I about BO). But I hear that Brown is pleased, so if he is, I am. :)

  2. In his introduction to tonight's show, Larry Kudlow just said he is interviewing Scott Brown in a few minutes. It's on CNBC if anybody is interested.

  3. I am worried that a higher profile for this race will be bad for our side....and that is Brown's side if you wondered.

  4. Brown is not complaining about a lack of establishment support so until he does I say keep pumping for Brown but xnay on the flogging of the national establishment ...
    little good can come of it ...

  5. Thank you, Fuzzy Slippers. You stated my opinion perfectly. +1

  6. Don't know if you caught Curt Schilling's pitch for Brown on his blog, 38 Pitches, today.

    I also posted on mine http://my-thoughts-on-freedom.blogspot.com/2010/01/shill-for-scott-brown.html

  7. I hope Brown wins because of how humiliating it would be for the Dems to lose Ted Kennedy's seat but the chances of winning are ZERO. Polls never seem to matter in MA. Romney was looking good in the polls in his run against Kennedy right until the end but he got trounced too. Funny how that always seems to happen in MA. You don't need voters to get votes in the Boston area (which is where most of the votes are cast).

    I would feel better if this guy was somehow connected with the conservative movement but until the RNC and NRSC decided that he was on his own, he was merely a convential Republican. Yeah sure, he's a bible-thumper but that so was Jimmy Carter. Just visit his website and there is John McCain.

    Like I said, I hope he wins but I'm saving my money on this one. I grew up in Boston. Brown doesn't have a chance.

  8. This is precisely why I'm looking to the Tea Parties, instead of the Republican Party, to produce new and highly viable candidates. The GOP has transformed from the the Grand Old Party to the Gutless Old Patsies. Fiscal conservatives everywhere want better. (And I contributed to Brown's campaign, because I have no faith whatsoever in the GOP.)

  9. And I'd like to see Brown win because what he believes in resonates with voters, NOT because what Coakley stands for does not.

  10. @PPhil: Brown certainly is the underdog, but I don't see any comparison between the present race and Romney's campaign to unseat Ted Kennedy. At the time, Romney was a pretty weak candidate: well-financed, but inexperienced and unknown. Kennedy was struggling in the polls early on, but once he kicked his campaign into gear, it was no real contest.

    The present race is different in several important ways. Martha Coakley is nowhere near the candidate TK was. In fact, she trails Brown in terms of relevant experience (he's a legislator; she isn't). There's also no real affection for her among the electorate, as far as I can tell. Most important, the times are very different. This is obviously not a great moment to face the voters if you are a Democrat and de-facto incumbent. There's a lot of passion out there among voters, and about 99% of it is directed AGAINST the things that Martha Coakley represents.

    Let's say you're right, however, and that Scott Brown has a "zero" chance to win. I would still argue that it's worthwhile to make the outcome as close as possible. If Coakley sails to victory, just as we would expect in a "normal" year, that will only embolden Obama and Congressional Dems to wreak more and more havoc with our tax dollars, with our liberties, and with our children's futures. The Democrats crave our apathy. Don't give it to them!

  11. Massachusetts has a habit of electing Republican Governors.

    Ted Kennedy was the last of Massachusetts Royalty.

    Folks voted for him because of that and his seniority.

    Gov Patrick is not well thought of... the Mass Health Care program is swimming it the red sea... people are out of work... taxes keep going up and folks are disillusioned.

    I won't predict the outcome of the race but I and my family will cast votes for Brown, regardless of any poll.