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Monday, September 27, 2010

Rasmussen - O'Donnell Down Only 9% If Castle Runs

Rasmussen just released a Delaware poll showing Christine O'Donnell down 49-40% to Chris Coons in a race in which Mike Castle mounts a write-in campaign:
It is possible that a write-in campaign by Congressman Mike Castle could hurt Democrat Chris Coons more than Republican Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware campaign for U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Delaware voters finds Coons with 49% support, while O’Donnell earns 40% of the vote. Castle, a longtime congressman who lost to O’Donnell in the state’s GOP Primary, picks up five percent (5%). Another five percent (5%) remain undecided.
The Rasmussen release does not indicate how the vote breaks out if Castle is not in the race, except to note that Castle hurts Coons more than O'Donnell, and that almost all of the Castle supporters said they otherwise would vote Coons or were undecided.

The poll obviously is what it is, but what is most surprising is that Castle gets only 5%.  What if Castle pulls 10 or 15% (or higher) as most people expect, and almost all of those are Coons supporters?

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  1. What if Castle entering the race wins it for O'Donnell? Would he then be considered a hero? An anti-spoiler? With these types of numbers O'Donnell should be begging him to run. Have there been any instances of someone entering a race for the sole purpose of helping someone on their own side that would otherwise lose? Obama got some heat for offering things to someone in order to drop out. Is it wrong to bribe someone to run?

  2. its similar to what i observed in alaska. Miller is winning, but the murky vote and the vote for the dem (whatever his name is) is actually greater than miller's alone. so murky might be helping miller. so in that case, run murky run.

    And i think james taranto has a good point too. remember when ollie north ran for the senate. the dems concentrated all of their fire on him and defeated him. and they were all cheering on that november night, in 1994. at least until all the other races came in. Taranto's point is to say maybe if north hadn't run and drawn all that fire, they would have concentrated it elsewhere and staved off the 1994 tide.

  3. New reasons why you never want Chris Coons anywhere near Washington DC.


  4. These "polls" disgust me. A young man named "Steven" called me tonight and asked questions trying to stampede me out of my vote for a conservative Proposition 8 supporter in California. The so called "polling questions" increased in their shrillness to a crescendo asserting that the conservative would cut public safety and deny a woman her "right to choose."

    Pollsters are in a race to the bottom as they quote margins that exist within their "margins of error" stated as plus or minus three percent, or as I saw recently plus or minus four point one percent. It isn't a poll, its a campaign.