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Sunday, May 29, 2011

Now Is Not The Time To Play It Safe

Choices will have to be made soon, and chief among them is whether to tackle the debt problem head on and take the political risk, or not.

I don't see it as much of a risk.  Obama will not be defeated unless front and center is the damage to the nation from the national debt and the deficits, and the absolute abdication of duty by the Democrats.  Instead of 14 Wisconsin fleebaggers, we have an entire Democratic Party and President who have fled from the central issue of our generation.

With the mass media on Obama's side, milquetoast is not going to work.

Obama is overplaying the bin Laden card big time, but he can't help himself because it is the only achievement of his administration as to which he is on the side of the American people.  Every other supposed achievement -- Obamacare, Stimulus, not sure what else -- in fact was an abject failure and unpopular.

Obama cannot ride bin Laden forever.  It's the debt stupid.  And the big, ever expanding government which stifles job growth. 

The Democrats think they are sitting pretty with stupid, childish commercials about Grandma being thrown off a cliff.

Let them think NY-26 was their Virginia, New Jersy and Massachusetts.  Three sweeping wins in significant sized states versus a mere plurality in a messed up congressional race in which a fake Tea Party candidate served as spoiler.

Now is not the time to play it safe.  Because safe is a guarantee of four more years of the worst President since the Great Depression.

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  1. Looks like Dick Morris is now the chief strategist for the "cut and run" GOP. Some economist (I can't find who) said that the only exercise Republicans ever get is running for the hills.

    If the GOP establishment wants to shake its image as "The Stupid Party" and "The Party That Doesn't Stand for Anything", they need to do two things:

    1- Embrace the Tea Party conservatives and their issues

    2- Fight!!!!

    That's why Trump is more popular than any of the current "front standing arounders".

  2. Must read from "The Economist" from May 19:


    Explains why the GOP loses elections every time the country club boys who know best what the country needs impose their liberal candidate on us. Had they ran a conservative candidate in conservative NY-23 and NY-26, there would be two more Republicans in the House today.

    Had they not stuffed Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina down the throats of Republicans in CA, we would certainly have one more Republicans senator and probably a Republican governor.

    Let's not bring up Alaska and Senator Murky again.

  3. Couldn't have said it better, Professor.

    I agree with Rush - the candidate that takes it to Obama, pulling no punches - will win the nomination,and, hopefully, the election. We CANNOT survive 4 more years of the "worst President since the Great Depression" Obama.

  4. "The Democrats think they are sitting pretty with stupid, childish commercials about Grandma being thrown off a cliff."

    No, no, no. Those commercials *work* and they are *dangerous*. They put an incredibly hateful, defamatory idea out there and make it commonplace and socially acceptable to say.

    Think about how you respond to that with an undecided audience.

    You can start explaining why it's not so. Now you're droning on about facts and figures, and they sound like they're just telling it like it is.

    You can respond by pointing out how outrageous it is. Now you're getting incensed at a cartoon.

    That's why this stuff works. Democrats know that their target audience only has so much patience to listen to this stuff, so all they have to do is generate a constant drumbeat to make a few vicious lies the conventional wisdom, and generate enough static to drown out any real debate.

  5. Madcon, I'm always grateful when a fellow Californian agrees with me in public. If the many conservatives in CA would step up and fight, we might retake the GOP by ourselves. There are more conservatives and Republicans in CA than anywhere else but we don't have a Republican party. (This is usually when Texans step in to declare that CA is hopeless and that "we ought to just give it back to Mexico".

    And people wonder why Republicans lose even when they "win".

  6. Gee, who has been taking it to Obama for almost two years... that's right Sarah Palin.

    The others just down' the courage or the correct principles. I am tired of folks believing that the media beat down makes it impossible for a win. By and large Americans are fair people. The left overplayed their hand and folks just aren't buying the BS coming out in the media anymore.

    As they've tried to 'sell' us on one quisling after another, the poll numbers have gone down for the flying monkey candidate du jour...

    Watch, they are on to Plan B and starting to say Palin can win... in the hopes this will drive her numbers down. They will be disappointed to discover that the trend will be broken with Palin.

  7. History is moving fast right now. The situation, far from static, is volatile.

    There is a whole flock, or lamentation, of black swans circling. Some are named Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy. What are the US political ramifications if the European social democratic mother ship crashes in insolvency in the next 18 months? Events are moving very fast and for quite a while only in one direction: toward collapse.

    Some examples from just the last few days:

    Barcelona, Spain
    Protest demonstrations against the above have now broken out across Spain

    "Ireland may need more EU/IMF cash: minister" (a second bailout)
    "In comments to The Sunday Times newspaper, Transport Minister Leo Varadkar became the first cabinet member to cast doubt in public on Ireland's ability to raise cash on the bond market"

    "The team of experts from the European Central Bank , IMF and EU Commission, the economic and fiscal condition of Greece examined the will, according to information obtained by SPIEGEL, in its quarterly report on an alarming finding: Greece MISS(ED) ALL AGREED FISCAL TARGETS"

    google translate

    A failure to meet agreed deadlines like this may be all it takes to stop the Greek bailout and trigger default.

  8. A long fact filled thoughtful piece on Europe by John Mauldin....

    “All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.”
    – George Orwell

    "The IMF warned this week it may not continue funding Greek debt in the very near term. Greece might be denied the next tranche of financial aid if an audit of its budget accounting shows that the country cannot guarantee financing for the next 12 months, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said Thursday. "I'm not the spokesman of the International Monetary Fund, but the rules say they can only disburse if there is a financing guarantee for the 12-month period," Juncker told reporters at a conference in Luxembourg. Juncker is very discreet and savvy. Clearly he had discussions with IMF leaders before making such a statement.

    “If that happens, he said, the IMF's rules could stop the fund from contributing its share of the next slug of bailout money, due to be paid out to Greece on June 29. The review, from the so-called troika of officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, is due to be presented next week. ‘I don't think that the troika will come to the conclusion that this’—12 months of funding commitments for Greece—‘is certain,’ said Mr. Juncker, speaking at a conference in Luxembourg.

    “In that case, the IMF would expect other euro-zone governments to step in and cover the funds. Drumming up that financing would be hard in countries such as Germany and Finland, he said. IMF spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson said Thursday in Washington that the fund generally doesn't lend if there are gaps in financing, and that it was seeking reassurance from the euro-zone countries who are also lending to Greece."

    "Sidebar: for the record, there are reportedly massive bank runs in Greece, especially on large uninsured deposits."

    (Notice that the ECB (European Central Bank) has Two Trillion Euros worth of questionable, some quite possibly worthless, bonds as collateral.)

    "My good friend and early mentor Dr. Gary North wrote a poignant piece in his Reality Check letter today about ignoring the signs of pending problems. I insert it here as the launching point for the close of the letter. (I learned about Austrian economics, and a great deal of what I know about writing, economic history, and more during my early years [in the ’80s] as Gary’s business associate.)

    “Trigger Points and Evasive Action

    “When would a wise Jew have begun making plans to leave Germany? 1933? 1934? 1938? 1939?"

    John Mauldin

  9. Well-stated, Professor, I've forwarded your link to many of my friends!!

  10. Ben (above) is correct

    That's why this stuff works. Democrats know that their target audience only has so much patience to listen to this stuff, so all they have to do is generate a constant drumbeat to make a few vicious lies the conventional wisdom, and generate enough static to drown out any real debate.

    I was privileged to spend a summer learning Public Relations during a Dale Carnegie course taught by a former Energy Utility executive. He said in order to get your point across to the average public, you have to make your point and get their attention within 15 seconds, because if you don't, that is when the public starts to tune you out, and within 30 seconds they have FULLY tuned you out.

    The "pulling the plug on Grandma" commercial works because it's an iconic idea that sets into the mind quickly. What we need to combat it with is a commercial that says:

    Medicare: 55 and older, NO CHANGE under Paul Ryan's Plan. Under do-nothing Democrats Medicare ENDS in 2017. Which do YOU prefer?

    Literally something simple like red text over a black background with a voice-over. Some repetition (especially during high-volume hours on network television and radio) and suddenly it will become the Democrat party who has to do the explaining.