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Thursday, February 10, 2011

Mubarek Staying

While there was much speculation that Hosni Mubarek would resign tonight, he just announced that he was staying for the transition through September elections.

There will be more on this later, but the highlights of his speech were to lash out at foreign interference ("we are not a satellite state"), to insist that the Egyptian Constitution be followed and amended, that the transition be orderly, with an emphasis on his own history living through Egypt's most important moments in the recent past.

Listening to the speech, I wonder how out of touch he may be with the younger generation.  Mubarek's persistent references to Egyptian independence and struggles reminds me of when an American politician invokes the struggles of World War II or the Cold War.  If you didn't live through it, and many of the Egyptians in the streets either were not born or were young children during the tumultuous 1960s and 1970s in the Middle East, it just sounds stale.

Things will be interesting.  I can't imagine the situation will stay stable until September.

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  1. Considering this morning's comments by Obama praising the protestors, particularly the young protestors, it sure looks like Obama wasn't tipped off of the decision and leaned on Mubarak hoping to push him into stepping down.

    Those reassurances yesterday to Mubarak by the Saudis that he can rely on the Saudis should the US withhold the $1.5B per year of support for the Egyptian Army may have tipped the scales.

    If so, this suggests that Obama has lost influence not only with the Egyptians but with the Saudis as well.

    Appeasers are never taken seriously. There is no point being the most powerful country on earth if our leaders keep reassuring our enemies that we will never use that power.

  2. I mentioned in another comment that I would note how I finally managed to comment here.

    Background: for quite awhile, I tried to comment here but for some reason could not.

    I have a google account but when I would use that for a login, my comment would fail to show up.

    Even emailed mr. Jacobson about it and he kindly responded but didn't know why I was having trouble.

    Here it is in a nutshell:

    If you select a profile that you have an account for but your comment still doesn't show up, ENABLE THIRD PARTY COOKIES!

    I normally restrict any browser that I've used in certain areas to prevent possible security breaches and such. Preventing third party cookies is one such option. But it will prevent you logging in in certain situations.

    If you don't know how, go into your tools/options menu and look in the section on cookies or security. You should find an option to allow third party cookies. Change that to enabled and you should be able to log in and comment (providing you already have one of accounts listed in the Select profile drop down list here.)

    allowing third party cookies isn't that hazardous and Firefox (my browser) can be set to remove them after each browser session.


  3. He's speaking to a much more traditional society which values heads of families more than young people. True, it's the young who feed revolt, but in terms of speaking to the entire population his speech wasn't so off base. And it is the army's response that really matters. Reminding of his military past, may win a few points with key decision makers in the military.

  4. jakee308: that may have solved your problem but not mine. It seems that there is a problem with the Blogger interface itself when you select a profile to post your comment.

    I used to sign in through the Wordpress option where I would enter my blog url. That stopped working and still doesn't work. I've since been clicking on the "OpenId" option in "select profile" and typing in "yahoo.com" which verifies the credentials I set up with my internet provider, AT&T.

  5. Back to the topic of Mubarak, when the US Director of National Intelligence declares that the Muslim Brotherhood is "largely secular" and "has eschewed violence", what are the adults in the ME, aka "our friends", supposed to do?


    My guess is that the Saudis, Israelis, maybe even Jordan have made an agreement that to support Mubarak until the September elections because the US is not giving them any other option.

  6. My theory is proving out: Israel supports Mubarak's decision:


    And NBC is reporting that the Obama administration is out of the loop:

    "Intelligence officials are also scrambling to try to determine exactly what this all means. According to one official, "We didn't know exactly what Mubarak was going to do tonight. There was an assumption he would step down, but it looks like he's got other ideas.""


  7. @Pasadena Phil: that is a good call.

    There are a few options here: the MB are out of control in Egypt. The MB have control over the mosques, and that means Friday violence on an even bigger scale.

    Egyptian Sandmonkey is not aligned to MB or to either left or right (good news in my view, and I knew he was not aligned to MB a long time ago). This underlying movement wants to establish an Egyptian Unity Party. Will it work? I do not know. I see this group backing away from the violence incited by MB.

    I think that people like the Sandmonkey are unaware that they are being manipulated by CodePink as well as other pinkos like William Ayers and Bernadine Dorhn. Time will tell if they end up seeing how they are being manipulated.

    I can see Mr. Potato Head being arrested by the army. El Baradei is a traitor to Egypt. He is a puppet of the Iranian regime. I am sure that Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are aware of his allegiances.

    All we can do now is wait and see what happens next.

  8. "And it is the army's response that really matters."

    Yup. Full stop.

    @ Pasadena Phil: "My guess is that the Saudis, Israelis, maybe even Jordan have made an agreement that to support Mubarak until the September elections because the US is not giving them any other option."

    Yes to the guess but no to the imputed reason, at least proximately. The ones mentioned are supporting Mubarak because they are looking to protect themselves from MB and the deconstruction which follows in their train.

    Ultimately, of course, the reason given is accurate: this administration ("the US" as usurped) supports MB and all it stands for -- at least until they can eliminate domestic non-MB opponents. In their minds, once they accomplish that elimination, then they take down MB -- as prefigured by their commitment to ops in AFPAK. And it is AFPAK, not AF merely.

    However, what is in their minds is madness. And that, improved by fraud, is what the voters wanted. So, one shortens sail and rides out the storm.