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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Obama's Great Experiment Is Ending Badly

The great experiment devised by the most brilliant mind ever to occupy the Oval Office, the massive expansion of government and the piling on of debt and regulations, is not working:
U.S. companies hired far fewer workers than expected in May and output in the manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest level since 2009, raising concerns that the U.S. recovery is running out of steam.

Economists slashed their forecasts for Friday's closely watched U.S. payrolls report after private-sector job growth tumbled to just 38,000, its lowest level in eight months.
Who could have imagined such a thing?  Only those who lack gravitas, apparently.

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10 comments:

  1. Who could have imagined such a thing? Any person who has ANY understanding of the fallacy that is Keynesian economics and who understands that "Static Analysis" of economic theory doesn't EVER work (because people change behaviors based on the new changed circumstances).

    I've been sitting back watching commodity prices be decoupled from the demand curve and just waiting for the market to correct again. Right now, the ENTIRE manufacturing sector is being squeezed because their raw materials prices are going through the roof, while their customers have finished replacing the inventory burned through during the past 18 months, so customers are no longer ordering, waiting for Manufacturers to reduce their prices because those manufacturers are hungry to try to get work.

    If you want to look at history, I'd say we're JUST about to enter a cycle (at least for manufacturing) like the one started around March of 2001, when the manufacturing downturn. My guess is that any manufacturer who remembers history will level off production and start cutting back so that they are in a lean inventory position, with minimal funds tied up in inventory which might not sell for a while.

    This has implications for the Obama re-election though, because it takes about 20 months to recognize a downturn, meaning that the "experts" won't tell us we we're back in a recession until February of 2013, even if all us lay-folk know it before then.

    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/02/business-cycle-troughs-of-1991-and-2001/

    P.s- if you want to see how TRULY bad it became from the uncertainty created by the policies of the Democrat controlled Congress, take a look at the THIRD graph and NINTH graph to see how Democrat changes in policy starting in 2007 crashed the economy almost exactly 1 year later and took almost a year to bottom out as businesses and individuals changed their structures and finances to deal with said uncertainty (specifically tax policy, health care policy, foreign policy and domestic spending).

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged almost 280 points

    "Stocks sank more than 2 percent Wednesday, following several economic reports that confirmed a struggling recovery and after Moody's downgraded Greece's bond ratings deeper into junk status."

    CNBC

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  3. Greece, with the substantial downgrade including a negative outlook today by Moody's, is very near default.

    FT, Alphaville

    If (and IMO when) Greece defaults and triggers CDS (Credit Default Swaps) fasten your seat belts.

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  4. It is worse than it appears.

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  5. Consumer Confidence Is Now Lower Than During All Recent Financial Crises And Tragedies

    "Confidence number with comparable prints taken at financial crises and tragedies of the past such as the October 1987 markets crash, Desert Storm, LTCM, the dot com collapse, September 11, Katrina, and Lehman. No surprise: yesterday's was the lowest. And as a reminder, the president's reelection campaign kicks into higher gear in a few months...against the backdrop of the most unhappy popular sentiment in recent years. Just how do QE 3 skeptics believe he will succeed, when still faced with consumer confidence that two years into the "recovery" is lower than during any other previous economic "expansion", even as congress is about to unleash the most brutal wave of fiscal consolidation (aka austerity) in recent American history."

    ReplyDelete
  6. OH, it's not just that his 'plan' is not working, it's that his 'plan' is making things WORSE.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Correction to jakee308's comment:

    it's not just that his 'plan' is not working, it's that his 'plan' is to make things WORSE.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
    Can We Please Stop Pretending the GDP Is "Growing"?
    The Federal Government borrowed and spent $5.1 trillion to get $700 billion in total GDP "growth" from 2008-2011. In constant dollars, there was no growth at all.
    The Federal government borrowed and spent $5.1 trillion over the past four years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation's GDP. That means we've borrowed and spent $7.28 for every $1 of nominal "growth" in GDP.
    In constant dollars, GDP is flat: we got no growth at all for our $5.1 trillion: zip, zero, nada. In constant dollars, the GDP in 2011 might return to the 2007 level, if the economy continues "growing" at the same pace reached in the first three months of 2011. If not, then the GDP will actually be lower than pre-recession levels.

    MORE: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-can-we-please-stop-pretending-gdp-growing

    ReplyDelete
  9. So after preventing a total and imminent economic collapse and facilitating over a year of consistent (if slow) job growth in a situation were we should be thanking god that were not at 10%-15% unemployment, a single month of disappointing job growth is proof that Obama's "experiment" is a failure? Right... as you criticize the left for viewing Obama as something like a messiah, you are the one holding him to the messianic standards. If he would even come close to the handling of the economy that you seem to expect from him it would be the greatest accomplishment in American history.

    This simpleminded man is yet another example of falling standards of American academia.

    ReplyDelete