The back up data is not linked in the Reuters-Ipsos release, so it is hard to judge the internals, particularly the statement in the press release that among registered voters, Reid is up 52-36. Such a big swing between registered voters and likely voters seems improbable to this layman, particularly given all the other polls in the past couple of weeks, none of which show such large gaps. I'd like to see what some of the professional poll analysts, like Jay Cost, have to say on this subject.
Here are some key findings, all of which come from the press release:
- 71% said the state is on the wrong track
- 74% said the economy is their top concern
- 65% said Obama's support for Reid made no difference to them
Here is how the pollster summed up the race:
"He (Reid) is well within her striking distance," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark. "I think this one will go down to the wire and it will absolutely depend on turnout."This assessment seems reasonable. Turnout will be everything.
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Recounts will be everything. Angle might have won the election, but with 1 or 2 recounts, who knows? Al Franken.
ReplyDeleteIf Reid wins because the Tea Party had a hand in nominating the only Republican in Nevada who can actually lose to Harry Reid, then their "clout" has to come to an end.
ReplyDeleteThis is an embarrassment. There is no reason that Reid should even have a chance, no matter when a poll is taken, who takes it, who is surveyed, or who the opponent is. Yet Angle is somehow either going to have to sweat out a narrow victory, or lose.
It's such a shame Danny Tarkanian is not the candidate. He would be up by at least 10 points in every poll right now.
Angle certainly lacks a certain level of charisma; however, wasn't a populace smitten with charm, charisma and a certain-historical-je-ne-sais-quoi what got us into this mess in the first place? If the voters of Nevada don't think that stopping the Obama juggernaut is important, I don't know what else to say.
ReplyDeleteYour assumption is that Tarkanian would have beat Reid without any problem but the problem is that your assumption is just a guess.
ReplyDeleteThe RCP averages that Tarkanian had against Reid at the time were similar to Angle's. In fact some polls had Tarkanian falling off steeply. When he left the race his spread was only +4.3, not 10.
In any event, if turnout is the key here then Republicans need the support of the Tea Party, whether you are embarrassed by them or not. So why don't you try and get with the program and work to defeat Reid rather than throwing stones at others that are giving it their best shot?
Here are the internals. The poll has a pretty high margin of error for likely voters and there is no reasoning given for their sample selection. Given a 6 point margin of error Angle could well be ahead. I think they are sampling on a wishful-thinking model for Democratic turnout in this poll. There really is no doubt, however, that the underlying message from Ipsos is Angle could win this unless Democrats get out and vote. This seems to be the underlying message from most of the left-leaning pollsters though.
ReplyDeleteThe registered voter sample seems skewed Democratic, but again no rationale is offered, so take the 16 point spread there with a grain of salt. That's my quick take on this but as you said I would like to see someone break this down.