In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.Start the obligatory left-wing yows. Start the obligatory Republican establishment yows.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the Tea Party comes out on top. Thirty-three percent (33%) prefer the Tea Party candidate, and 30% are undecided. Twenty-five percent (25%) would vote for a Democrat, and just 12% prefer the GOP.
I think this poll shows a couple of things. First, a Tea Party (which is not actually a party) effort would hand Democrats a plurality victory, much as Ross Perot handed the election to Bill Clinton.
Second, the Republican establishment needs to understand that it has lost its base.
Third, Democrats need to understand that their policies are sufficiently unpopular that a non-organized anti-tax movement polls only 13% percent behind Democrats overall, and actually wins with independents. Think about that as Democrats prepare to push through health care and climate change taxes.
Lots of lessons all around. The one big lesson: Throw out the health care bills and start all over with a less intrusive, lower tax, more market-oriented approach.
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What is the fundamental difference between the Tea Party and the Republicans? Economics and Social Issues. Republicans are clinging to the latter, and the Tea Party is shifting towards the former. Republicans need to make their move or risk losing the base. When people are financially happy, they vote well.
ReplyDeleteThis is the same Ross Perot dynamic that handed the WH to the Clintonistas during 1992-2000. The tea partyers, of which I am one, have to realize that their only friends in Washington DC are the republicans and that if they don't work through the Republican party to change it, they won't have a country left, after the democraps get through with their tax and spend socialist policies. To put in another way, tea partiers can't let the perfect destroy the good.
ReplyDeleteI hate to use the breaking eggs/omelette metaphor, but in this case I think it applies. The GOP as a party may need to be destroyed and rebuilt, as the leadership and entrenched interests seem determined to keep their power and corrupt and compromised BAU tactics. The tea party base demands to be heard, listened to and obeyed. Plenty of us have HAD IT with the party machinery as it is. We will not stand for another McCain or for ever-growing government. Does the GOP want to win or just keep their statist-enabling power?
ReplyDeleteI agree with the guillotine tactics Erick Erickson is talking about for Georgia and would apply them to the whole country: lop off all the heads at once for a mass bloodletting.
It's time to break some eggs. If not now, when??
I know this is a very difficult concept for those who just can't let go of their GOP security blankets but it looks to me like the Republican Party is now the defacto THIRD PARTY.
ReplyDeleteAnd when you combine the Democratic Party numbers with the Assistant Democratic Party (GOP) numbers, they total only 54%.... and sinking. Tea Party and "undecided" make up the other 46%.
I would say this augers well for a new party rather more than for a Democratic victory with a "plurality". It all depends on your emotional mind set. I'm with George Washington, I have no use for political parties. Especially when there is only one.
showbiz111: you mean "the open borders, cap and trade, obamacare, big government" Republicans are our "only" friends? How can you tell?
ReplyDeleteNo worries. Cuz Sarah is "going to Iowa."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2009/12/07/Palin-signs-books-in-primary-caucus-state/UPI-43361260164991/
After joking about going it before the Gridiron Club last evening:
http://womenstate.blogspot.com/2009/12/sarah-palins-full-speech-at-gridiron.html
Sarah is the only candidate that can bring the base (and a few PUMAs) into the fold... and if the GOP don't know it... they deserve a big "F" on their 2012 finals. For not paying attention.
SYD
I've enjoyed my occasional visits to this blog, but no longer. From the recent "birther" entry and now to this outright lie that Perot handed the election to Bill Clinton, it is evident that the author is more interested in intellectual laziness than actual analysis.
ReplyDeleteOur "friends" the Republicans are at it again. The unctuous and effeminate Sen. Lindsey Graham (not to be confused for timeless beauty Lindsay Wagner) is urging Republicans to back Cap and Trade to fight off the EPA mandate.
ReplyDeleteYou can find the link at MichelleMalkin's blog.
With friends like these....
Both major parties need to keep their eyes wide open. The Tea Party movement grows daily -- it's in its infancy yet, but is having a noticeable effect on the Clown College in D.C.. I just loved this poll. Out of the blue -- a kick in the ol' traditional gut! My new plan is to elect our federal officials by Powerball.
ReplyDeleteI gotta go along with the head-lopping, though. No one in D.C. is trustworthy -- we can't trust a single, solitary soul in D.C. to do as they profess any farther than we can throw him and/or her. My current Senator is Mary Landrieu and my former Senator is Blanch Lincoln; my Representative is Anh "Joseph" Cao. 'Nuff said.
"...the Republican establishment needs to understand that it has lost its base."
ReplyDeleteI don't know about that. The GOP "base" would appear to be the 18% that sticks with it, not the 23% that expresses an apparent willingness to bolt.
Anyway, if I were a conservative, I'd look at the fact that this generic poll shows 41% favoring the GOP or the Tea Party vs. 36% for the Democrat. If that holds -- and the undecideds break proportionately -- it augurs a real anti-Democrat sweep in 2010, not just a few pick ups.
Drive a wedge between the 23% and the 18% and you're likely to wind up with bubkis.
It's really simple: conservative GOPers can win in districts where most voters are more or less conservative; where liberals and Democrats dominate, they have no chance; and the swing districts and states, which decide majorities in both Houses, are a mixed bag of liberals, moderates and conservatives in various proportions. Winning requires GOP candidates who fit the temper of the district or the state, and sometimes that means a candidate who won't win any applause at a Tea Party.
The only certain way to give Obama what he needs to follow through on health care, cap and trade, higher taxes, a lame foreign policy, etc. is to keep beating this anti-moderate drum.
Khan, if your 'occasional' visits to this blog were so enjoyable, why didn't you come by more often??
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the Republican party "needs" except changed (or "restored" and it needs that now. Today, Pearl Habor Day, 2009.
ReplyDeleteWe recovered from what the Japanese did to us in 1947, I think almost recovered from what the Islamists did to us in the past 10 or 12 years, I am not a bit sure we can recover from what "our" government is doing to us this afternoon.
Obama may need a third party candidate to split his opposition in order to win re-election in 2012. So maybe the question for Republicans in 2012 will be which candidate can best keep the tea party people from forming their own party and thereby re-electing Obama. That would have to be someone who is not identified with the party insiders. Some well-publicized disputes with the leadership and the elites would be useful. Is there any candidate like that?
ReplyDeleteThis trend is evident given the recent election results. The way the current administration is running things I expect to see the independents overwhelmingly shift toward more conservative candidates.
ReplyDelete