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Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Prediction: Obama Will Sign Senate Bill If Reconciliation Fails

Probably the single biggest obstacle to Obamacare is House Democrats who do not like the Senate health care bill, but whose votes are needed to move the budget reconciliation process along.

The strategy appears to be for the House to pass the Senate bill as is, based on the promise of the budget reconciliation process being successful in the Senate to implement changes.

But what if the Senate does not or cannot pass the changes through the reconciliation process?

Obama then has to power to sign the bill as passed by the House and Senate, meaning the Senate bill.

Has Obama promised not to do so?

Here's a list of Obama promises to the left-wing of the Democratic Party which have been broken, courtesy of Firedoglake: Senate Health Care Bill Is Built On Obama’s Broken Promises.

Here are some others, all from the left:

"I promise," Obama apparently is saying.

Will Obama really pass up the historic opportunity to sign the Senate bill even if reconciliation doesn't work out? Will Obama leave us to wander in the health care wilderness for another 40 years?

Don't count on it. My prediction now is in pixels:

"If the House passes the Senate bill, Obama will sign the bill if reconciliation fails."

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An "Unusually Good Bill Clinton"

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  1. I fear you are spot on. Hopefully, that introductory "if" is a whopping big one.

  2. "I promise".

    When Obama says that, is there any phrase in the English language with any less meaningful content?

  3. Prediction: If the House Passes the Senate Bill, Obama won't wait for Reconciliation to play out. He'll sign the bill immediately.

    This would actually put much more pressure on the Senate to pass a reconciliation bill because the Senate would need to fix the Cornhusker Kickback, Gator-aid, etc. before the November elections.

    Thus ObamaCare immediately becomes the law of the land, and the chances of passing a reconcilation bill go up. It's a win-win decision for O.

  4. Thank goodness Republicans managed to at least block the horrid public option.

  5. "I promise".
    When Obama says that, is there any phrase in the English language with any less meaningful content?

    "Don't worry, I will respect you in the morning" - which is pretty much same thing. As our Leader has said - he won't discuss his election promises because he already won.

    Check out my blog:

  6. Obama was a liar from the beginning; what he says means nothing.

  7. I thought the U.S. Constitution requires that all revenue bills had to originate in the house. Isn't this deathcare obamanation a "revenue" raising bill?

  8. @Gordon, here is a link which explains how the courts have interpreted Article 1, section 7, of the Constitution, http://supreme.lp.findlaw.com/constitution/article01/23.html. I don't think this bill would be barred on that basis.

  9. I truly think reconciliation is a smoke screen to confuse people -- including Democrat congresscritters -- into thinking the House vote isn't final. If the House votes for the bill THE BILL IS PASSED -- no matter what procedural rhumba the Senate decides to do. You have only Pelosi's word she'll hold the bill and not send it to the White House, and Obama has NEVER said he wouldn't sign it. We need to stop thinking if reconciliation fails it's over. It's over if the House passes this -- why the hell do you think the Senate insisted the House go first? I personally think the Senate will say "Hey, jobs are more important, Obama can sign what we passed and we'll fix it later - maybe after November." The Senate doesn't have to do anything at all if they don't want to.