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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Dem Path to Victory in 2010 - Run As Conservative Republicans

Just ask pro-life, pro-gun clinging, anti-Obamacare, anti-cap-and-tax Mark Critz, who pulled out a victory in PA-12 last night in a district in which Obama is unpopular:

The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was even more disliked in the blue-collar, western Pennsylvania-based seat: Just 23 percent viewed her favorably, compared to 63 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

Still, Democrat Mark Critz managed to pull off an eight-point victory, 53 percent to 45 percent, over Republican Tim Burns in a district that John McCain narrowly won in 2008—the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and McCain four years later.

It is the same strategy Rahm Emanuel used so effectively in 2006 and 2008 to get so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats elected. It is the "all politics is local" theory; ignore the fact that electing a Democrat will keep the hated Nancy Pelosi in her Speakership, bash the Democratic national policies, and use local issues and issues that cut across party lines to win.

The job for Republicans is to make sure people understand that a vote for any Democrat is a vote for Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Barack Obama.

It's the "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" answer to Blue Dogs.

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  1. Aside from the fact that the guy is basically anti-Obama, he had other benefits as well. First, turn-out in special elections are usually really low. And second, that was helped by the fact that the Democratic primary was competitive, which led to Democrats going to the polls, while less Republicans had a reason to go to the polls because the Republican primary was not competitive.

    So, while this was a bad night for Republicans and gave some hope to Democrats, I think there are reasons why Critz won, and overall, this does nothing to stop the huge losses that Democrats will suffer in November.

  2. Blue dogs are like two headed monsters. You don't know what guy is going to show up to vote. It could be Critz, it could be Pelosi. They are easily persuaded. As a Stupak constituent, I wouldn't be fooled by a Democrat pro-life label again (I never thought he was a blue dog).

    I read something interesting a little bit ago that any decision made by committee is generally worse than one made by a single person. A committee usually has to compromise to come to a resolution on an issue. The example the author used was in deciding on a candidate to hire, a committee is torn between two candidates. One makes one half happy, and the other half unhappy, and vice versa. In order to fill the position, the committee scraps both their preferred candidates and hires a third less qualified, but less devisive person.

    A blue dog is the compromised choice of a committee. Obamacare is the compromised product of Democrats. That cannot bode well.

    It is easy to run against something in hindsight. Does Critz want to work to repeal it if it's so bad?

  3. The republicans in the House have to force another vote for Speaker after this clown is installed and make him vote against Peelousy as speaker, or for her. Expose his lies before November's election.

  4. The past year has been the most politically divisive I've ever seen. The people in PA-12 had to know that whatever the issues Critz ran on, a vote for Critz was essentially a vote to advance the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda.

    As Hayek might say, they chose the socialist road to serfdom.

  5. I'm guessing that he ran as a continuation of the Murtha Money Machine. That district practically has an IV line dripping fed money in and I'm certain that Crist was granted the wink and a nod that the money will continue even if he ran as a Blue Dog Dem and anti-Washington.

    The Democrats aren't going to take any chances with scary votes now that they've seen the mood of the voters. It's ugly outside of DC.

  6. Becky: "I read something interesting a little bit ago that any decision made by committee is generally worse than one made by a single person."

    That's a Demotivator. "None of us is as stupid as all of us"

  7. Remember, this seat is up for re-election in November. Critz will have a four month voting record and photo-ops with Pelosi, Reid and President Obama. The conservative veil will be lifted, and Critz won't have the benefit of a Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on the same night.

  8. Well, there was some progress in the district, FWIW Murtha won the last election by a comfortable 16 points; Critz by a closer 8.

    Still...When are Repubs going to act like they want to actually win? We had the "culture of corruption" drummed into our heads in 2006, so that even schoolkids were familiar with the term- when are the Repubs going to come up with a similar mantra about Pelosi, and pound it in so that the voters are compelled to act?

    Plus, the Repubs are losing the image war- voters in "Blue Dog" districts don't want want the clean-cut guy (the Tim Burns image/the Doug Hoffman accountant look) they want bare-knuckles fighters who look like them and are going to understand their concerns and fight for them (and yeah, the pork "gravy train" is important, but we'll be broke if we continue down this path). The highly-paid consultants and establishment Repubs never understand this.

    Why pay some consultant with a losing track lots of money when you can get great winning advice from people like Sarah Palin on Facebook- for free!

  9. As a Pennsylvanian I would argue that the victory has less to do with Critz running to the right of Burns and more to do with the unspoken understanding that he would keep the pork flowing.

  10. You folks can spin this however you want within your echo chamber but, the democrats have won 6 of the last 7 special elections. Now I know you think that's good news for the republicans and maybe it is. We are on the way to creating more jobs in 2010 than bush created in his 2 terms. We've caught or killed more terrorists in one year than bush did in his last 4. People will also be seeing benifit from the health care bill by November. Now, hopefully the BP oil spill won't be washing up on the Florida coast then but, who knows. The republicans are losing minority votes but maybe people will like all the anger and intolerance we've seen from the right in the last few months.

  11. "We are on the way to creating more jobs in 2010 than bush created in his 2 terms."

    So here is how the Democrats plan to win - LIE.

    Since Pelosi took control of the Congress in 2007, the private sector has LOST 6 million jobs. that is the worst 4 year record of any Congress, President, or ANYONE in our lifetimes.

    Pelosi's job record is the worst.

  12. You do realize that you just agreed with John Murtha? He also thought the people in his district were stupid.