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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Now The Sotomayor Polls Don't Matter

I don't think confirmation of a Supreme Court nominee should turn on public polling. Nonetheless, when the public polls favored Sonia Sotomayor, supporters of Sotomayor argued for the relevance of these polls, arguing that "that Obama apparently found the American political center in appointing her."

Then came the Supreme Court's decision in Ricci v. DeStefano, which reversed Sotomayor's ruling on the New Haven firefighters case. Now the public polls have turned down substantially, with a small plurality against Sotomayor's nomination. A Rasmussan poll shows a drop in support with 37% in favor of confirmation, and 39% against.

So, if the polls were relevant when the polls were good for Sotomayor, does that mean the polls still are relevant when the polls are not so good?

Related Posts:
Sotomayor's Supporters May Spin Her Out Of A Job
What Sandra Day O'Connor Said
Sotomayor "Meant What She Said and Said What She Meant"
Prominent Constitutional Scholar Warns Of "Stealth Nominee"
Sotomayor's Damned Statistics

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  1. Well, remember: hypocrisy only counts if it's coming from the right--to the left, it's a badge of honor.

  2. Btw, i suspect the underlying reason for her drop in the polls is that increasingly people are finding out what she said in Ricci.

    If people actually understood the case like i did, and surely you do, Mr. Jacobson, i think opposition would run closer to 80%.

  3. Well, the Rasmussen polls don't matter.

    Isn't it amazing how every poll Rasmussen conducts -- three or four a week! -- reveals a heretofore unrecognized increase in right-wing thinking and contempt for Obama and the Democrats! And no other polling organization -- not even Fox/Opinion Dynamics -- ever seems to discern the same patterns! Why, you'd almost think Rasmussen was generating these polls with the express intent of garnering maximum wingnut media coverage and thus raising its profile!

  4. @ Steve M.

    You're right! It's a conspiracy. Everyone LOVES Obama. We all want DMV-style health care, Cap 'n' Tax, and overspending by trillions of dollars! WE ALL HAIL HIS EXALTED NAME! O! O! O! O!

    Seriously, why don't you look at some of the older Rasmussen polls which clearly show positive Obama reactions, or some even older ones (all of eight to ten months ago-- ancient history to you, I guess) which clearly indicate anti-Bush sentiment.

    But wait, it's only a problem if polls show public opinion is against the mighty Obama... Then it's fudging the numbers to play to a "disenfranchised minority." That makes perfect sense.

  5. Yukio, I just quoted the Gallup poll that shows a statistically significant increase in people thinking the Democrats are too liberal. I think Gallup plays it straight, as do nearly all of the other big-name pollsters. And I'd include Fox polls in that. When Gallup or Pew or Fox CNN or NBC/WSJ or ABC/WaPo or NYT/CBS says there's trouble for Obama or the Democrats, I take it seriously.

    Maybe Rasmussen used to play it straight. Rasmussen's electoral polls don't seem out of line. But in the past few months, Rasmussen has been making a real effort to cook up non-election polls that grab right-wing attention online and in the press. And every single one seems to run counter to trends in other polls. I find that very, very curious.

  6. Home phone calls are biased, moms tend to answer and the astute often hangup, not private enough. Online you get those biased to the exact point, but they are leery if email or name is required.
    We need one anonymous vote per computer, for more private online polls.
    I am all for giving extra education to the economically disadvantage via preschool and summer classes. But applications should never mention race/color as that is a disgrace. The advancement of human kind needs the most qualified to get the positions. Sotomayor ruled not discrimination, throwing out test/job advancement for non-black firefighters, and she ruled that the 2nd amendment shouldn't be incorporated even after other Bill of Rights, amendments, were incorporated, even with the Supreme Court finding the 2nd Amendment was an individual right. Sotomayor is biased and fails to support equal and individual rights.