tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post2572191264229395053..comments2023-10-24T11:23:31.580-04:00Comments on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Skewed Sample Data Used In PPP Wisconsin "Do Over" PollWilliam A. Jacobsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16433685588536441422noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-79396515945124398942011-03-02T12:17:30.053-05:002011-03-02T12:17:30.053-05:00I want to point out that the CNN exit polls showed...I want to point out that the CNN exit polls showed that Barrett held a 63-37 edge with voters in a Union Household (26% of the vote). That is a 26% edge, not 14% as suggested by PPP. <br /><br />Meaning... that he held about a 6.75 real percent edge in Union vote... whereas hypothetically he would hold about an 8% edge based on this poll. That is a difference of 1.25% - if you add that to Barret and subtract from Walker... you move the race from:<br /><br />52.3 - 46.5<br />49.8 - 49.0<br /><br />Walker would still have an advantage..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-40859293298179683082011-03-01T19:25:10.920-05:002011-03-01T19:25:10.920-05:00In Wisconsin, the full census is not as yet report...In Wisconsin, the full census is not as yet reported. But the latest Census numbers against which the demographics being used by the <b>PPP Poll</b> can be checked, <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US55&-qr_name=ACS_2009_5YR_G00_DP5YR5&-ds_name=ACS_2009_5YR_G00_&-_lang=en&-_sse=on" rel="nofollow"> indicates that as of mid-2009</a>, there were <b>4,279,113</b> persons in the state 18 years of age or older, i.e., a fairly good snapshot of the entire voting age population of the State.<br /><br />All the Census categories (age 20 and above) add up to 4,110,055, which means (via a little simple math) that there were 169,059 persons who were 18 and 19 year old as of mid-2009.<br /><br />The remaining available breakdowns, while not precisely consistent with the breakdowns in the <b>PPP Poll</b> can be approximated using an addition or subtraction of 1/10th of a 10-year category here, or splitting a ten year category there, etc., so that the percentages should produce fairly accurate ballpark estimates of the categories, and should add up to the overall estimate in the 2009 Census estimate.<br /><br />At the link you cited in your post, <b>PPP Poll</b> shows that they surveyed four age categories, and the percentages of respondents from each of those categories, as follows:<br /><br />18 to 29 ........ 10%<br /><br />30 to 45 ........ 32%<br /><br />46 to 65 ........ 38%<br /><br />Older than 65.... 20%<br /><br />Here are the actual numbers for each category, and the percentage of that Census number given for those 18 years old and older:<br /><br />18 to 29 – (929,561) - 21.59%<br /><br />30 to 45 - (1,215,554) - 28.8%<br /><br />46 to 65 - (1,432,357) - 33.47%<br /><br />Older than 65 – (701,641) - 16.4%<br /><br />Given the fact that Pew reported extremely high voter turnout for young people (18 - 29) in the 2008 election nationwide, and that Wisconsin had the 4th highest turnout in the nation, these numbers seem incongruous with the response you received. <br /><br />Why did they poll less than half of that young demographic? I thought they told you this result would mirror 2008 much more closely that 2010 did? <br /><br />I understand that seniors have historically been more likely to vote that others, but the weight of those polled here seems broadly skewed toward those two upper categories, those 46 years old and older. That would include people much more likely focused on pending retirement benefits.<br /><br />This seems to only reinforce what the percentages of factors like the high number of union households suggested in your post.<br /><br />Incidentally, the <b>CBS</b> poll seems to have been skewed in an entirely different manner, at least as as relates to age.Trochilushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07661310034696479920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-20424076921554230782011-03-01T18:50:03.658-05:002011-03-01T18:50:03.658-05:00You and Ed are doing the work I should be doing, L...You and Ed are doing the work I should be doing, LOL!<br /><br />Nice job, and linked, with fleebagger video as well: <a href="http://americanpowerblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/update-on-new-york-times-poll-on-public.html" rel="nofollow">'Update on New York Times Poll on Public Sector Unions'</a>.AmPowerBloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18236333181889271910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-20103191295527885942011-03-01T18:17:35.550-05:002011-03-01T18:17:35.550-05:00First saw the dynamic with Gingrich in 90's. ...First saw the dynamic with Gingrich in 90's. Commission a poll, word it and skew the samples to get the desired result (Gingrich unpopular), report your own cooked poll results as News (Gingrich unpopular), take another poll, similar method, report your cooked results as more news (Gingrich more unpopular), repeat, then run stories on most unpopular figure ever. Simple.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09102008927479541926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-51838598036171604012011-03-01T16:07:14.254-05:002011-03-01T16:07:14.254-05:00so you're the one who conducted the Harp Seal ...so you're the one who conducted the Harp Seal / Union Boss / Teacher poll?<br /><br />dude.Enoch_Roothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01783513532272967542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-3533243144757660892011-03-01T14:48:33.473-05:002011-03-01T14:48:33.473-05:00Isn't this a classic example of begging the qu...Isn't this a classic example of begging the question? <br /><br />The poll is accurate because they assume that people now side with the unions thus their poll number showing people siding with the union is accurate.ThreeSheetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10873393698899480308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-87364279332570724982011-03-01T14:39:48.434-05:002011-03-01T14:39:48.434-05:00The only poll that matters was taken four months a...The only poll that matters was taken four months ago.<br /><br />The next poll that matters will be taken 20 months from now ... an eternity.<br /><br />The. End.Jim athttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02271099587684174816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-2302289727659738852011-03-01T11:56:06.789-05:002011-03-01T11:56:06.789-05:00Since YouGov came in first in the American Researc...Since YouGov came in first in the American Research Group evaluation, I was looking around the YouGov website and found this:<br /><br /><a href="http://today.yougov.com/news/2011/02/15/republican-party-congress-and-2012/" rel="nofollow">today.yougov.com</a>viatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09210255358385745222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-46700264457295313142011-03-01T11:05:50.140-05:002011-03-01T11:05:50.140-05:00"The following table lists the average accura..."The following table lists the average accuracy of pollsters and polling aggregators based on 2010 Primary, Senate, Governor, and House races using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. A minimum of nine polls/races were required to be included in the table." <br /><br /><a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ratings/2010/summary/" rel="nofollow">American Research Group</a>viatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09210255358385745222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-5077854130054665002011-03-01T10:46:42.758-05:002011-03-01T10:46:42.758-05:00More Nate Silver:
PPP comes in thirteenth out of ...More Nate Silver:<br /><br />PPP comes in thirteenth out of 62. PPP is not committed to NCPP or the AAPOR Transparency Initiative as of 6/1/10. "Pollsters that have made a commitment to transparency and disclosure have been shown to have superior results over the long-run"<br /><br /><a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html" rel="nofollow">The old 538 (pre-NYT)</a>viatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09210255358385745222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-24570520046579274932011-03-01T10:26:58.169-05:002011-03-01T10:26:58.169-05:00Nate Silver:
"The table below presents resul...Nate Silver:<br /><br />"The table below presents results for the eight companies in FiveThirtyEight’s database that released at least 10 polls of 2010 gubernatorial and Senate contests into the public domain in the final three weeks of the campaign, and which were active in at least two states." <br /><br /><a href="http://www.538host.com/pollacc1.png" rel="nofollow">2010 Accuracy Analysis</a><br /><br /><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/" rel="nofollow">538 NYT</a>viatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09210255358385745222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-32259476416425376762011-03-01T09:38:51.653-05:002011-03-01T09:38:51.653-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13166238539872968095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1522121129844880066.post-37156106831842656222011-03-01T09:19:25.613-05:002011-03-01T09:19:25.613-05:00Having closely observed the campaign, but NOT rela...Having closely observed the campaign, but NOT related to poll-science, I'll say this:<br /><br />Tom Barrett did NOT want to run for Governor, and it showed. It showed light red against white. It showed like gold against lead.<br /><br />If you recall the GWHB campaign's last few weeks, Barrett made GWHB look like the Energizer Bunny.<br /><br />So, no, I don't believe the poll. Scientific stuff to follow later.Dad29https://www.blogger.com/profile/08554276286736923821noreply@blogger.com